The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options

Climate geoengineering proposals seek to rectify the Earth's current and potential future radiative imbalance, either by reducing the absorption of incoming solar (shortwave) radiation, or by removing CO2 from the atmosphere and transferring it to long-lived reservoirs, thus increasing outgoing longwave radiation. A fundamental criterion for evaluating geoengineering options is their climate cooling effectiveness, which we quantify here in terms of radiative forcing potential. We use a simple analytical approach, based on energy balance considerations and pulse response functions for the decay of CO2 perturbations. This aids transparency compared to calculations with complex numerical models, but is not intended to be definitive. It allows us to compare the relative effectiveness of a range of proposals. We consider geoengineering options as additional to large reductions in CO2 emissions. By 2050, some land carbon cycle geoengineering options could be of comparable magnitude to mitigation "wedges", but only stratospheric aerosol injections, albedo enhancement of marine stratocumulus clouds, or sunshades in space have the potential to cool the climate back toward its pre-industrial state. Strong mitigation, combined with global-scale air capture and storage, afforestation, and bio-char production, i.e. enhanced CO2 sinks, might be able to bring CO2 back to its pre-industrial level by 2100, thus removing the need for other geoengineering. Alternatively, strong mitigation stabilising CO2 at 500 ppm, combined with geoengineered increases in the albedo of marine stratiform clouds, grasslands, croplands and human settlements might achieve a patchy cancellation of radiative forcing. Ocean fertilisation options are only worthwhile if sustained on a millennial timescale and phosphorus addition may have greater long-term potential than iron or nitrogen fertilisation. Enhancing ocean upwelling or downwelling have trivial effects on any meaningful timescale. Our approach provides a common framework for the evaluation of climate geoengineering proposals, and our results should help inform the prioritisation of further research into them

The effect of widespread early aerobic marine ecosystems on methane cycling and the Great Oxidation

The balance of evidence suggests that oxygenic photosynthesis had evolved by 3.0-2.7 Ga, several hundred million years prior to the Great Oxidation ≈2.4 Ga. Previous work has shown that if oxygenic photosynthesis spread globally prior to the Great Oxidation, this could have supported widespread aerobic ecosystems in the surface ocean, without oxidising the atmosphere. Here we use a suite of models to explore the implications for carbon cycling and the Great Oxidation. We find that recycling of oxygen and carbon within early aerobic marine ecosystems would have restricted the balanced fluxes of methane and oxygen escaping from the ocean, lowering the atmospheric concentration of methane in the Great Oxidation transition and its aftermath. This in turn would have minimised any bi-stability of atmospheric oxygen, by weakening a stabilising feedback on oxygen from hydrogen escape to space. The result would have been a more reversible and probably episodic rise of oxygen at the Great Oxidation transition, consistent with existing geochemical evidence. The resulting drop in methane levels to ≈10 ppm is consistent with climate cooling at the time but adds to the puzzle of what kept the rest of the Proterozoic warm. A key test of the scenario of abundant methanotrophy in oxygen oases before the Great Oxidation is its predicted effects on the organic carbon isotope (δ13Corg) record. Our open ocean general circulation model predicts δCorg13≈-30 to -45‰ consistent with most data from 2.65 to 2.45 Ga. However, values of δCorg13≈-50‰ require an extreme scenario such as concentrated methanotroph production where shelf-slope upwelling of methane-rich water met oxic shelf water.This work was supported by NERC (NE/I005978/2) and the Leverhulme Trust (RPG-2013-106)

Slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its implications for abrupt ecosystem change

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Marine ecosystems are sensitive to stochastic environmental variability, with higher-amplitude, lower-frequency--i.e., "redder"--variability posing a greater threat of triggering large ecosystem changes. Here we show that fluctuations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index have slowed down markedly over the observational record (1900-present), as indicated by a robust increase in autocorrelation. This "reddening" of the spectrum of climate variability is also found in regionally averaged North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and can be at least partly explained by observed deepening of the ocean mixed layer. The progressive reddening of North Pacific climate variability has important implications for marine ecosystems. Ecosystem variables that respond linearly to climate forcing will have become prone to much larger variations over the observational record, whereas ecosystem variables that respond nonlinearly to climate forcing will have become prone to more frequent "regime shifts." Thus, slowing down of North Pacific climate variability can help explain the large magnitude and potentially the quick succession of well-known abrupt changes in North Pacific ecosystems in 1977 and 1989. When looking ahead, despite model limitations in simulating mixed layer depth (MLD) in the North Pacific, global warming is robustly expected to decrease MLD. This could potentially reverse the observed trend of slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its effects on marine ecosystems.National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis Derived data were provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Ocean and Atmospheric Research/Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division (NOAA/OAR/ERSL PSD), Boulder, CO. The PDO index was provided by the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington/NOAA. HadISST and HadSST3 data were provided by the Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom. ERSST data were provided by the NOAA. MLD data were provided by S. A. Grodsky, University of Maryland. C.A.B. and T.M.L. were supported by the Research on Changes of Variability and Environmental Risk (RECoVER), funded by EPSRC (EP/M008495/1). C.A.B. was also supported by a PhD Studentship funded by the University of Exeter, United Kingdom. T.M.L.’s contribution was also supported by a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award and EU FP7/2007-2013 under Grant Agreement 603864 (HELIX)

Detection of bifurcations in noisy coupled systems from multiple time series

This is the final version of the article. Available from AIP Publishing via the DOI in this record.We generalize a method of detecting an approaching bifurcation in a time series of a noisy system from the special case of one dynamical variable to multiple dynamical variables. For a system described by a stochastic differential equation consisting of an autonomous deterministic part with one dynamical variable and an additive white noise term, small perturbations away from the system's fixed point will decay slower the closer the system is to a bifurcation. This phenomenon is known as critical slowing down and all such systems exhibit this decay-type behaviour. However, when the deterministic part has multiple coupled dynamical variables, the possible dynamics can be much richer, exhibiting oscillatory and chaotic behaviour. In our generalization to the multi-variable case, we find additional indicators to decay rate, such as frequency of oscillation. In the case of approaching a homoclinic bifurcation, there is no change in decay rate but there is a decrease in frequency of oscillations. The expanded method therefore adds extra tools to help detect and classify approaching bifurcations given multiple time series, where the underlying dynamics are not fully known. Our generalisation also allows bifurcation detection to be applied spatially if one treats each spatial location as a new dynamical variable. One may then determine the unstable spatial mode(s). This is also something that has not been possible with the single variable method. The method is applicable to any set of time series regardless of its origin, but may be particularly useful when anticipating abrupt changes in the multi-dimensional climate system.The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under Grant Agreement No. 603864 (HELIX). We thank Jan Sieber for help in identifying the case studies and useful comments on an early draft of the manuscript

The effects of marine eukaryote evolution on phosphorus, carbon and oxygen cycling across the Proterozoic–Phanerozoic transition

This is the final version of the article. Available from Portland Press via the DOI in this record.A ‘Neoproterozoic oxygenation event’ is widely invoked as a causal factor in animal evolution, and often attributed to abiotic causes such as post-glacial pulses of phosphorus weathering. However, recent evidence suggests a series of transient ocean oxygenation events ∼660–520 Ma, which do not fit the simple model of a monotonic rise in atmospheric oxygen (pO2). Hence, we consider mechanisms by which the evolution of marine eukaryotes, coupled with biogeochemical and ecological feedbacks, potentially between alternate stable states, could have caused changes in ocean carbon cycling and redox state, phosphorus cycling and atmospheric pO2. We argue that the late Tonian ocean ∼750 Ma was dominated by rapid microbial cycling of dissolved organic matter (DOM) with elevated nutrient (P) levels due to inefficient removal of organic matter to sediments. We suggest the abrupt onset of the eukaryotic algal biomarker record ∼660–640 Ma was linked to an escalation of protozoan predation, which created a ‘biological pump’ of sinking particulate organic matter (POM). The resultant transfer of organic carbon (Corg) and phosphorus to sediments was strengthened by subsequent eukaryotic innovations, including the advent of sessile benthic animals and mobile burrowing animals. Thus, each phase of eukaryote evolution tended to lower P levels and oxygenate the ocean on ∼104 year timescales, but by decreasing Corg/P burial ratios, tended to lower atmospheric pO2 and deoxygenate the ocean again on ∼106 year timescales. This can help explain the transient nature and ∼106 year duration of oceanic oxygenation events through the Cryogenian–Ediacaran–CambrianThis work was supported by the NERC-NSFC programme ‘Biosphere Evolution, Transitions and Resilience’ through grant NE/P013651/1

BPOP-v1 model: exploring the impact of changes in the biological pump on the shelf sea and ocean nutrient and redox state

This is the final version. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.The biological pump of the ocean has changed over Earth's history, from one dominated by prokaryotes to one involving a mixture of prokaryotes and eukaryotes with trophic structure. Changes in the biological pump are in turn hypothesized to have caused important changes in the nutrient and redox properties of the ocean. To explore these hypotheses, we present here a new box model including oxygen (O), phosphorus (P) and a dynamical biological pump. Our Biological Pump, Oxygen and Phosphorus (BPOP) model accounts for two – small and large – organic matter species generated by production and coagulation, respectively. Export and burial of these particles are regulated by a remineralization length (zrem) scheme. We independently vary zrem of small and large particles in order to study how changes in sinking speeds and remineralization rates affect the major biogeochemical fluxes and O and P ocean concentrations. Modeled O and P budgets and fluxes lie reasonably close to present estimates for zrem in the range of currently measured values. Our results highlight that relatively small changes in zrem of the large particles can have important impacts on the O and P ocean availability and support the idea that an early ocean dominated by small particles was nutrient rich due to the inefficient removal of P to sediments. The results also suggest that extremely low oxygen concentrations in the shelf can coexist with an oxygenated deep open ocean for realistic values of zrem, especially for large values of the small-particle zrem. This could challenge conventional interpretations that the Proterozoic deep ocean was anoxic, which are derived from shelf and slope sediment redox data. This simple and computationally inexpensive model is a promising tool to investigate the impact of changes in the organic matter sinking and remineralization rates as well as changes in physical processes coupled with the biological pump in a variety of case studies.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Gaia 2.0 - Could humans add some level of self-awareness to Earth’s self-regulation?

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from American Association for the Advancement of Science via the DOI in this recor

Extending the domain of freedom, or why gaia is so hard to understand

This is the final version. Available from University of Chicago Press via the DOI in this record.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Reduced carbon cycle resilience across the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

This is the final version. Available on open access from EGU via the DOI in this recordSeveral past episodes of rapid carbon cycle and climate change are hypothesised to be the result of the Earth system reaching a tipping point beyond which an abrupt transition to a new state occurs. At the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) at ∼ 56 Ma and at subsequent hyperthermal events, hypothesised tipping points involve the abrupt transfer of carbon from surface reservoirs to the atmosphere. Theory suggests that tipping points in complex dynamical systems should be preceded by critical slowing down of their dynamics, including increasing temporal autocorrelation and variability. However, reliably detecting these indicators in palaeorecords is challenging, with issues of data quality, false positives, and parameter selection potentially affecting reliability. Here we show that in a sufficiently long, high-resolution palaeorecord there is consistent evidence of destabilisation of the carbon cycle in the ∼ 1.5 Myr prior to the PETM, elevated carbon cycle and climate instability following both the PETM and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2), and different drivers of carbon cycle dynamics preceding the PETM and ETM2 events. Our results indicate a loss of "resilience" (weakened stabilising negative feedbacks and greater sensitivity to small shocks) in the carbon cycle before the PETM and in the carbon-climate system following it. This pre-PETM carbon cycle destabilisation may reflect gradual forcing by the contemporaneous North Atlantic Volcanic Province eruptions, with volcanism-driven warming potentially weakening the organic carbon burial feedback. Our results are consistent with but cannot prove the existence of a tipping point for abrupt carbon release, e.g. from methane hydrate or terrestrial organic carbon reservoirs, whereas we find no support for a tipping point in deep ocean temperature.This work was supported by an EPSRC/ReCoVER Early Career Research Project Award (number: RFFECR 002) and an NERC Studentship to DIAM (number: NE/J500112/1) hosted at Ocean and Earth Science at the University of Southampton, with revised analyses performed at Stockholm Resilience Centre. TML was supported by a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award and the NERC “JET” large grant (NE/N018508/1)

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model.

Journal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tCopyright © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached.NERCUniversity of ExeterEuropean Union Seventh Framework programme FP7/2007-201